The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgical Services in Singapore: Retrospective Quantitative Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) unit had to reorganize its surgical case volume due to the rationing of health care resources. We report on a local audit evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HPB unit and the HPB surgical oncology practice. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to review the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the HPB unit's elective and emergency surgical cases. The secondary aims were to investigate the impact on the HPB surgical oncology operative case volume. METHODS: We performed a comparative audit of the HPB unit surgical case volume for January-June 2019 (baseline) and 2020 (COVID-19). Elective and emergency cases performed under general anesthesia were audited. Elective cases included hernia and gallbladder operations and liver and pancreatic resections. Emergency cases included cholecystectomies and laparotomies performed for general surgical indications. We excluded endoscopies and procedures done under local anesthesia. The retrospective data collected during the 2 time periods were compared. This study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2000040265). RESULTS: The elective surgical case volume decreased by 41.8% (351 cases in 2019 compared to 204 cases in 2020) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of hernia operations decreased by 63.9% (155 in 2019 compared to 56 in 2020; P<.001) and cholecystectomies decreased by 40.1% (157 in 2019 compared to 94 in 2020; P=.83). The liver and pancreatic resection volume increased by 16.7% (30 cases in 2019 compared to 35 cases in 2020; P=.004) and 111.1% (9 cases in 2019 compared to 19 cases in 2020; P=.001), respectively. The emergency surgical workload decreased by 40.9% (193 cases in 2019 compared to 114 cases in 2020). The most significant reduction in the emergency workload was observed in March (41 to 23 cases, a 43.9% reduction; P=.94), April (35 to 8 cases, a 77.1% reduction; P=.01), and May (32 to 14 cases, a 56.3% reduction; P=.39); however, only April had a statistically significant reduction in workload (P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: The reallocation of resources due to the COVID-19 pandemic did not adversely impact elective HPB oncology work. With prudent measures in place, essential surgical services can be maintained during a pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2000040265); https://tinyurl.com/ms9kpr6x.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".