A Predicted Dearth of Majority Hypervolatile Ices in Oort Cloud Comets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present new, ice species-specific New Horizons/Alice upper gas coma production limits from the 2019 January 1 MU69/Arrokoth flyby of Gladstone et al. and use them to make predictions about the rarity of majority hypervolatile (CO, N 2 , CH 4 ) ices in Kuiper Belt objects and Oort Cloud comets. These predictions have a number of important implications for the study of the Oort Cloud, including the determination of hypervolatile-rich comets as the first objects emplaced into the Oort Cloud, the measurement of CO/N 2 /CH 4 abundance ratios in the protoplanetary disk from hypervolatile-rich comets, and population statistical constraints on early (<20 Myr) planetary aggregation driven versus later (>50 Myr) planetary migration driven emplacement of objects into the Oort Cloud. They imply that the phenomenon of ultradistant active comets like C/2017K2 should be rare, and thus not a general characteristic of all comets. They also suggest that interstellar object 2I/Borisov may not have originated in a planetary system that was inordinately CO rich, but rather could have been ejected onto an interstellar trajectory very early in its natal system’s history.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".