A Predicted Dearth of Majority Hypervolatile Ices in Oort Cloud Comets
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present new, ice species-specific New Horizons/Alice upper gas coma production limits from the 2019 January 1 MU69/Arrokoth flyby of Gladstone et al. and use them to make predictions about the rarity of majority hypervolatile (CO, N 2 , CH 4 ) ices in Kuiper Belt objects and Oort Cloud comets. These predictions have a number of important implications for the study of the Oort Cloud, including the determination of hypervolatile-rich comets as the first objects emplaced into the Oort Cloud, the measurement of CO/N 2 /CH 4 abundance ratios in the protoplanetary disk from hypervolatile-rich comets, and population statistical constraints on early (<20 Myr) planetary aggregation driven versus later (>50 Myr) planetary migration driven emplacement of objects into the Oort Cloud. They imply that the phenomenon of ultradistant active comets like C/2017K2 should be rare, and thus not a general characteristic of all comets. They also suggest that interstellar object 2I/Borisov may not have originated in a planetary system that was inordinately CO rich, but rather could have been ejected onto an interstellar trajectory very early in its natal system’s history.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it