Tractable Inference for Hybrid Bayesian Networks with NAT-Modeled Dynamic Discretization
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Hybrid BNs (HBNs) extend Bayesian networks (BNs) to both discrete and continuous variables.Among inference methods for HBNs, we focus on dynamic discretization (DD) that converts HBN to discrete BN for inference.Complexity of BN inference is exponential on treewidth, which extends to DD for HBNs.We presents a novel framework where HBN is transformed into NAT-modeled BN (NAT: Non-impeding noisy-AND Tree) for tractable inference.A case-study under the framework is presented on sum of continuous variables.We report significant efficiency gain of approximate inference by NAT-modeled DD over alternative methods.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it