Large-scale Volcanism and the Heat Death of Terrestrial Worlds
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Large-scale volcanism has played a critical role in the long-term habitability of Earth. Contrary to widely held belief, volcanism, rather than impactors, has had the greatest influence on and bears most of the responsibility for large-scale mass extinction events throughout Earth’s history. We examine the timing of large igneous provinces (LIPs) throughout Earth’s history to estimate the likelihood of nearly simultaneous events that could drive a planet into an extreme moist or runaway greenhouse, leading to the end of volatile cycling and causing the heat death of formerly temperate terrestrial worlds. In one approach, we make a conservative estimate of the rate at which sets of near-simultaneous LIPs (pairs, triplets, and quartets) occur in a random history statistically the same as Earth’s. We find that LIPs closer in time than 0.1–1 million yr are likely; significantly, this is less than the time over which terrestrial LIP environmental effects are known to persist. In another approach, we assess the cumulative effects with simulated time series consisting of randomly occurring LIP events with realistic time profiles. Both approaches support the conjecture that environmental impacts of LIPs, while narrowly avoiding grave effects on the climate history of Earth, could have been responsible for the heat death of our sister world Venus.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it