Population genomics of Bacillus anthracis from an anthrax hyperendemic area reveals transmission processes across spatial scales and unexpected within-host diversity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Genomic sequencing has revolutionized our understanding of bacterial disease epidemiology, but remains underutilized for zoonotic pathogens in remote endemic settings. Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis , remains a threat to human and animal health and rural livelihoods in low- and middle-income countries. While the global genomic diversity of B. anthracis has been well-characterized, there is limited information on how its populations are genetically structured at the scale at which transmission occurs, critical for understanding the pathogen’s evolution and transmission dynamics. Using a uniquely rich dataset, we quantified genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among 73 B. anthracis isolates derived from 33 livestock carcasses sampled over one year throughout the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania, an area hyperendemic for anthrax. Genome-wide SNPs distinguished 22 unique B. anthracis genotypes within the study area. However, phylogeographic structure was lacking, as identical SNP profiles were found throughout the study area, likely the result of the long and variable periods of spore dormancy and long-distance livestock movements. Significantly, divergent genotypes were obtained from spatio-temporally linked cases and even individual carcasses. The high number of SNPs distinguishing isolates from the same host is unlikely to have arisen during infection, as supported by our simulation models. This points to an unexpectedly wide transmission bottleneck for B. anthracis , with an inoculum comprising multiple variants being the norm. Our work highlights that inferring transmission patterns of B. anthracis from genomic data will require analytical approaches that account for extended and variable environmental persistence as well as co-infection. Importance Pathogens transmitted between animals and people affect the health and livelihoods of farmers, particularly in developing countries dependent on livestock. Understanding over what distances these pathogens are transmitted and how they evolve is important to inform control strategies towards reducing disease impacts. Information on the circulation of Bacillus anthracis , which causes the often-lethal disease anthrax, is lacking for settings where the disease is commonplace. Consequently, we examined its genetic variability in an area in Tanzania where anthrax is widespread. We found no clear link between how closely cases were sampled and their genetic similarity. We suspect this lack of congruence is primarily driven by large-scale livestock movements, which control efforts should take into consideration. Another significant finding was the co-occurrence of multiple B. anthracis types within individual hosts, suggesting animals are commonly infected with a mixture of variants. This needs to be accounted for when investigating possible connections between cases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".