Bullous Pemphigoid-Associated Mortality Rate in a Canadian Tertiary Referral Centre
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is the most common autoimmune blistering disorder in adults. Most individuals with BP are over the age of 60. Its worldwide incidence has been increasing owing to population aging. Observational studies published over the last 2 decades highlight the non-negligible, albeit variable overall mortality of BP patients, with reported 12-month mortality rates of 10.8% to 40.8%, and 24-month mortality rates of 20.1% to 51.0%. Data in the Canadian population are lacking. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the 12- and 24-month overall mortality rate of Canadian patients diagnosed with BP, and to identify independent risk factors adversely impacting overall survival. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 166 patients with a diagnosis of BP between 2010 and 2020 was carried out at Centre hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal (CHUM), a tertiary referral center in Montréal, Québec, Canada. Cumulative mortality was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and independent prognostic factors were identified using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients (51.2%) in our study were female. The median age was 79.1 years old, and 80 patients (48.2%) were 80 years old or older. Mortality at 12 and 24 months in our study cohort was 16.2% (CI95% = 10.5 - 21.8) and 27.6% (CI95% = 20.5 - 34.7), respectively. In a multivariate analysis, patients who were male, 80 years old or older, and/or had a diagnosis of a major neurocognitive disorder had a poorer overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: The all-cause mortality of patients with BP in our study population compared favorably with international data reported in the literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".