Quadratic signaling with prior mismatch at an encoder and decoder: equilibria, continuity, and robustness properties
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider communications through a Gaussian noise channel between an encoder and a decoder which have subjective probabilistic models on the source distribution. Although they consider the same cost function, the induced expected costs are misaligned due to their prior mismatch, which requires a game theoretic approach. We consider two approaches: a Nash setup, with no prior commitment, and a Stackelberg solution concept, where the encoder is committed to a given announced policy apriori. We show that the Stackelberg equilibrium cost of the encoder is upper semi continuous, under the Wasserstein metric, as encoder's prior approaches the decoder's prior, and it is also lower semi continuous with Gaussian priors. For the Stackelberg setup, the optimality of affine policies for Gaussian signaling no longer holds under prior mismatch, and thus team-theoretic optimality of linear/affine policies are not robust to perturbations. We provide conditions under which there exist informative Nash and Stackelberg equilibria with affine policies. Finally, we show existence of fully informative Nash and Stackelberg equilibria for the cheap talk problem under an absolute continuity condition.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it