The 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Wave and Associated Blocking: Meteorology and the Role of an Upstream Cyclone as a Diabatic Source of Wave Activity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We investigate the meteorological and dynamical conditions that led to the extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest from late June to early July 2021. The extreme heat was preceded by an upper‐level atmospheric blocking that snatched a warm pool of air from lower latitudes. A heat‐trapping stable stratification ensued within the blocking anticyclone, raising the surface temperatures significantly. An upper‐tropospheric wave breaking and the concomitant surface cyclogenesis off the coast of Alaska initiated the block formation. The regional local wave activity budget reveals that a localized diabatic source associated with this storm critically contributed to an enhanced zonal wave activity flux downstream, whose convergence over Canada drove the blocking. A simple reconstruction based on the observed wave activity budget predicts a 41 percent reduction in strength and a 10‐degree eastward displacement of the block when the upstream diabatic source is reduced by just 30 percent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".