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Record W4226308121 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1516063/v1

Rapid epidemic expansion of Sars-Cov-2 Omicron BA.2 subvariant during China’s largest outbreaks

2022· preprint· en· W4226308121 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Yeyu Dai

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2022
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersUniversity of WaterlooUniversity of Pretoria
KeywordsOutbreakChinaCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)QuarantineSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Isolation (microbiology)PandemicEpidemic modelStatistic2019-20 coronavirus outbreakDemographyVirologyGeographyDiseaseMedicineBiologyStatisticsPolitical scienceMathematicsLawInfectious disease (medical specialty)SociologyInternal medicinePathologyBioinformatics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract A complete and accurate statistic panorama and analysis of cases contracted Sars-Cov-2 Omicron BA.2 subvariant are given under the conditions of strict mandatory quarantine and isolation and of high rate of full vaccination. Sars-Cov-2 is still new and human know little about either its direction of variation or its propagation laws. No country other than China has been able to disclose every infected case and to have the data of heavily intervened large outbreaks. Here my study reveals that the BA.2 subvariant can still spread very fast and wide in areas with strict “dynamic zero-Covid Policy” in China, that there exist in different cities as much as twenty-time big differences of morbidity rate unrelated to any of the influence factors known and that Omicron BA.2 subvariant is unpredictable of its virulence though its severe rate of confirmed cases is low. This analysis provides a first-hand solitary and valuable information for further research of similar epidemic in the future. It may bring new thoughts for correction of present epidemiologic theory and mathematic models. It may also give other countries time to be better prepared for the coming 6th wave driven by Omicron BA.2.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.023
Threshold uncertainty score0.047

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.107
GPT teacher head0.428
Teacher spread0.321 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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