Estimating oil sands emissions using horizontal path-integrated column measurements
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Improved technologies and approaches to reliably measure and quantify fugitive greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands operations are needed to accurately assess emissions and develop mitigation strategies that minimize the cost impact of future production. While several methods have been explored, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of emissions from oil sand mines and tailings ponds suggests an ideal approach would continuously sample an area of interest with spatial and temporal resolution high enough to identify and apportion emissions to specific areas and locations within the measurement footprint. In this work we demonstrate a novel approach to estimating greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands tailings ponds and open-pit mines. The approach utilizes the GreenLITE™ gas concentration measurement system, which employs a laser-absorption-spectroscopy-based, open-path, integrated column measurement in conjunction with an inverse dispersion model to estimate methane (CH4) emission rates from an oil sands facility located in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada. The system was deployed for extended periods of time in the summer of 2019 and spring of 2020. CH4 emissions from a tailings pond were estimated to be 7.2 metric tons per day (t/d) for July–October 2019, and 5.1 t/d for March–July 2020. CH4 emissions from an open-pit mine were estimated to be 24.6 t/d for September–October 2019. Uncertainty in retrieved emission for the tailings pond in March–July 2020 is estimated to be 2.9 t/d. Descriptions of the measurement system, measurement campaigns, emission retrieval scheme, and emission results are provided.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".