Learning Economic Indicators by Aggregating Multi-Level Geospatial Information
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High-resolution daytime satellite imagery has become a promising source to study economic activities. These images display detailed terrain over large areas and allow zooming into smaller neighborhoods. Existing methods, however, have utilized images only in a single-level geographical unit. This research presents a deep learning model to predict economic indicators via aggregating traits observed from multiple levels of geographical units. The model first measures hyperlocal economy over small communities via ordinal regression. The next step extracts district-level features by summarizing interconnection among hyperlocal economies. In the final step, the model estimates economic indicators of districts via aggregating the hyperlocal and district information. Our new multi-level learning model substantially outperforms strong baselines in predicting key indicators such as population, purchasing power, and energy consumption. The model is also robust against data shortage; the trained features from one country can generalize to other countries when evaluated with data gathered from Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. We discuss the multi-level model's implications for measuring inequality, which is the essential first step in policy and social science research on inequality and poverty.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".