The utility of routine autologous bone-flap swab cultures in predicting post-cranioplasty infection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Objective: To evaluate the utility of autologous bone-flap swab cultures performed at the time of cranioplasty in predicting postcranioplasty surgical site infection (SSI). Design: Retrospective cohort study. Participants: Patients undergoing craniectomy (with bone-flap storage in tissue bank), followed by delayed autologous bone-flap replacement cranioplasty between January 1, 2010, and November 30, 2020. Setting: Tertiary-care academic hospital. Methods: We framed the bone-flap swab culture taken at the time of cranioplasty as a diagnostic test for predicting postcranioplasty SSI. We calculated, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios. Results: Among 282 unique eligible cases, 16 (5.6%) developed SSI after cranioplasty. A high percentage of bone-flap swab cultures were positive at the time of craniectomy (66.7%) and cranioplasty (59.5%). Most organisms from bone-flap swab cultures were Cutibacterium acnes or coagulase-negative staphylococci (76%–85%), and most SSI pathogens were methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (38%). Bone-flap swab culture had poor sensitivity (0.07; 95% CI, 0.01–0.31), specificity (0.4; 95% CI, 0.34–0.45), and positive likelihood ratio (0.12) for predicting postcranioplasty SSI. Conclusion: Overall, autologous bone-flap swab cultures performed at the time of cranioplasty have poor utility in predicting postcranioplasty SSI. Eliminating this low-value practice would result in significant workload reductions and associated healthcare costs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".