Childlessness Among Heterosexual Partnered Individuals: Register-Based Evidence from the Finnish Cohorts Born 1952–1966
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Finland has been a demographic forerunner in terms of the adoption of new family forms as well as family friendly social policies. Childlessness has nevertheless grown and, is high compared to many other countries. A large and increasing share of all persons who live in unions are childless. Using population-register data for the cohorts born 1952–1966, we study persons who were partnered at age 45 (n = 44,321). The aim is to analyse how marital status and union duration, together with socioeconomic characteristics of the ego and the partner, relate to the probability of being childless at 45. Logistic regression models are estimated separately for women and men, using a 10-year retrospective window. We find for both men and women, the strongest marker for being a parent by age 45 is whether they are married and had lived with the same partner for at least ten years. Shorter union durations and cohabitations are associated with a several-fold increase in the likelihood of being childless. Socioeconomic characteristics are relevant as well, but notably less important in terms of estimated effect sizes. Future research on this topic should tentatively be concerned with how childlessness relates to transitions into, from, and across unions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".