Risk of Myocarditis and Pericarditis among Young Adults following mRNA COVID-19 Vaccinations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There have been reports of cases of myocarditis and pericarditis as rare complications following mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations among young adults. While most reported cases are mild, this potential vaccine safety signal should be closely monitored. Using data from the CDC and the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), we calculated the combined reporting rate of myocarditis and pericarditis stratified by age group, sex, vaccine dose, and manufacturer, and compared these rates to the crude background incidence rates. Compared to the general population prior to the administration of the first COVID-19 vaccines in December 2020, we identified a higher-than-expected reporting rate of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA vaccination; the risk was higher after a second vaccine dose, higher in males than in females, and decreased with age. The highest risk was seen in males 12-17 years of age with approximately 6 cases per 100,000 second doses. Our findings suggest an increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in young males following a second dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Since these findings are based on safety signals derived from passive surveillance data, confirmatory epidemiological studies should be undertaken.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".