Global Historical Production, Use, In-Use Stocks, and Emissions of Short-, Medium-, and Long-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The last few decades have seen ubiquitous and increasing contamination of chlorinated paraffins (CPs) worldwide. Here, we develop the first global inventories of production, use, in-use stocks, and emissions of total CPs, including the short-, medium- and long-chain components (SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs) during 1930-2020 using a dynamic substance flow analysis model named Chemical in Products Comprehensive Anthroposhpheric Fate Estimation. The model estimates that a total of ∼33 million metric tons of CPs have been produced and used globally, ∼40% of which still resided in in-use products by 2020 and is available for long-term emissions in the next decades. Global cumulative emissions of CPs have increased to ∼5.2 million metric tons by 2020, with SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs accounting for ∼30, 40, and 30%, respectively. While the production, use, and emissions of CPs started declining in regions such as Western Europe, they remain high in China. The model also suggests that homologues with 10, 14, and 22-23 carbons were predominant in the cumulatively produced and emitted SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs, respectively. The emission estimates were evaluated by generating environmental concentrations that are comparable to literature-reported environmental monitoring data. Our estimates provide opportunities to link the environmental fate and occurrence of CPs to emission sources and lay the basis for future risk-reduction strategies of CPs around the world.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".