Optimizing UV index determination from broadband irradiances
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Amidst mounting concerns about the depletion of stratospheric ozone (O3), and for subsequent increases in the surface irradiances of ultraviolet (UV) light and its effects on human health, a daily UV forecast program was launched by Environment Canada in 1993. The program serves to monitor harmful surface UV radiation and provide this information to the Canadian public through the UV index, a scale which reports the relative intensity of the Sun's UV radiation at the Earth's surface, and the corresponding protection actions to be taken. The UV index was accepted as a standard method of reporting surface UV irradiances by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in 1994. A study was undertaken to improve upon the prognosticative capability of Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) UV index forecast model. An aspect of that work, and the topic of this communication, was to investigate the use of the four UV broadband surface irradiance fields generated by ECCC's Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) numerical prediction model to determine the UV index. The basis of the investigation involves the creation of a suite of routines which employ high spectral resolution radiative transfer code developed to calculate UV index fields from GEM forecasts. These routines employ a modified version of the Cloud-J v7.4 radiative transfer model, which integrates GEM output to produce high spectral resolution surface irradiance fields. The output generated using the high-resolution radiative transfer code served to verify and calibrate GEM broadband surface irradiances under clear-sky conditions and their use in providing the UV index. A subsequent comparison of irradiances and UV index under cloudy conditions was also performed. Linear correlation agreement of surface irradiances from the two models for each of the two higher UV bands covering 310–330 nm and 330–400 nm is typically greater than 95 % for clear-sky conditions with associated root mean square relative errors of 5.5 % and 3.8 %. On the other hand, underestimations of clear-sky GEM irradiances were found on the order of ~30–50 % for the 294–310 nm band and by a factor of ~30 for the 280–294 nm band. This underestimation can be significant for UV index determination but would not impact weather forecasting. Corresponding empirical adjustments were applied to the broadband irradiances now giving a correlation coefficient of unity. From these, a least-squares fitting was derived for the calculation of the UV index. The resultant differences in UV indices from the high spectral resolution irradiances and the resultant GEM broadband irradiances are typically within 0.2 with a root mean square relative error in the scatter of ~5.5 % for clear-sky conditions. Similar results are reproduced under cloudy conditions with light to moderate clouds, having a relative error comparable to the clear-sky counterpart; under strong attenuation due to clouds, a substantial increase in the root mean square relative error of up to 30 % is observed due to differing cloud radiative transfer models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".