Monitoring of Spring Flower Phenology in Nova Scotia: Comparison over the Last Century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since 1996, Nova Scotia Plantwatch has collected earliest flower dates for 12 plant species at 200 sites in Nova Scotia. The initial results for 1996-1998 are compared with records collected by MacKay between 1892 and 1923. Although the Mackay data were from a colder climatic interval in the Northern Hemisphere, most flowering dates are not significantly different from the present warmer (+0.5 - 0.7°C) period except during the 1998 season of record warmth. The only two species that showed significant differences are Epigaea repens and Syringa vulgaris. While E. repens showed significant later recent dates of first bloom, S. vulgaris showed earlier dates. Some of the variation within the province may be linked to oceanic influence; other variation reflects latitudinal gradients. These phenological results are compatible with other evidence that the average spring climate of the Atlantic Canada region has remained cool since 1948, but the early flowering in 1998 may be a response to a warming trend in the western part of the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".