Artificial neural network based nowcasting model for beach water quality
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recreational water users may be exposed to elevated pathogen levels that originate from various point and non-point sources. Current daily notifications practice depends on microbial analysis of indicator organisms such as Escherichia coli (E. coli) that require 18-24 hours to provide sufficient response. This research evaluated the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for real time prediction of E. coli concentration in water at Toronto beaches (Ontario, Canada). The nowcasting models were developed in combination with readily available real-time environmental and hydro-meteorological data during the bathing season (June-August) of 2008 to 2012. The results of the developed ANN models were compared with historic data and found that the predictions of E. coli concentrations generated by ANN models slightly outperforms than currently used persistence model with better accuracy. The best performing ANN models for each beach are able to predict approximately 74% to 82% of the E. coli concentrations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".