Determining Mean and Standard Deviation of the Strong Gravity Prior through Simulations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Humans expect downwards moving objects to accelerate and upwards moving objects to decelerate. These results have been interpreted as humans maintaining an internal model of gravity. We have previously suggested an interpretation of these results within a Bayesian framework of perception: earth gravity could be represented as a Strong Prior that overrules noisy sensory information (Likelihood) and therefore attracts the final percept (Posterior) very strongly. Based on this framework, we use published data from a timing task involving gravitational motion to determine the mean and the standard deviation of the Strong Earth Gravity Prior. To get its mean, we refine a model of mean timing errors we proposed in a previous paper (Björn Jörges & López-Moliner, 2019), while expands the range of conditions under which it yields adequate predictions of performance. This underscores our previous conclusion that the gravity prior is likely to be very close to 9.81 m/s². To obtain the standard deviation, we identify different sources of sensory and motor variability reflected in timing errors. We then model timing responses based on quantitative assumptions about these sensory and motor errors for a range of standard deviations of the earth gravity prior, and find that a standard deviation of around 2 m/s² makes for the best fit. This value is likely to represent an upper bound, as there are strong theoretical reasons along with support empirical evidence for the standard deviation of the earth gravity being lower than this value.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".