Large wildfires in western US exacerbated by tropospheric drying linked to a multi-decadal trend in the expansion of the Hadley Circulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Analyses of wildfire-climate relationships over North America were conducted using diverse data including ground-based measurements, satellite retrievals, and re-analyses for the period 1984-2014. Results show the western US (WUS) has experienced the most robust trend in increasing burned area, even though Alaska and central Canada possess comparable or even stronger warming trends compared to WUS. In addition to warming, the WUS has been under the influence of multi-decadal trends in tropospheric relative humidity deficit, reduced cloudiness, increased surface net insolation, enhanced adiabatic warming and drying from increased tropospheric subsidence, as well as drying from enhanced off-shore low-level flow, potentially leading to more abundant dry fuels and raging large wildfires. These trends are likely the manifestation of a regional climate feedback that is enabled by the intensification, and expansion of the North Pacific Subtropical High, associated with a widening of the subsiding branch of the Hadley circulation under greenhouse warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".