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Record W4235431593 · doi:10.1177/002795010218100109

Section II. The forecast in detail

2002· article· en· W4235431593 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueNational Institute Economic Review · 2002
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicEconomic, financial, and policy analysis
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsQuarter (Canadian coin)EconomicsReal gross domestic productTertiary sector of the economyAnnual growth %Agricultural economicsInternational economicsMonetary economicsEconomyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

It seems likely that the economy expanded rapidly in the second quarter following a virtual standstill in GDP growth in the two quarters at the turn of the year. The bounce back in growth is likely to be somewhat stronger than we had anticipated in April. Our estimates of monthly GDP suggest that the economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2002 led by strong growth in industrial production of 1.7 per cent. Output in the private service sector is also estimated to have risen rapidly by 1.4 per cent. The pick-up in the industrial sector in the second quarter is primarily a consequence of stronger external demand. Trade data to May suggest that growth in export volumes rose markedly in the first two months of the second quarter. We expect that export volumes rose by just under 5 per cent in the quarter as a whole, increasing GDP by around 1½ per cent. At the same time growth in the demand for imports has risen, albeit by less than the acceleration in export growth. Net trade is expected to have added 0.75 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.911
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.005

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.108
GPT teacher head0.269
Teacher spread0.161 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it