Bibliographic record
Abstract
Economic growth has been disappointing in the first half of 2003. The economy expanded by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter. Based on our monthly estimates of GDP we estimate that economic growth accelerated to around 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, remaining below trend. The weakness in the first quarter of the year came as a result of little growth in household consumption expenditure at a time when the corporate sector remained weak. We expect this pattern to have continued in the second quarter, although our forecast for growth in household consumption expenditure is not as weak as recorded at the beginning of the year. Our forecast of quarterly GDP growth (chart 1) shows the economy expanding more rapidly in the second half of the year. Growth in the second half of the year is supported by government investment and consumption expenditure, and a gradual recovery of growth in export volumes and business investment. Growth in export volumes is helped by the depreciation of the sterling effective exchange rate in the first half of this year, although there has been some rebound in the index over the summer. Conditions for business investment have also improved. Equity prices have risen in the second quarter of the year, monetary policy has been eased and the increase in geopolitical uncertainty that probably dampened investment in the first half of the year has subsided.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.195 | 0.112 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".