Using bioclimatic envelope modelling to incorporate spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change into conservation planning.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Current and predicted trends in climate are diverging from historic norms, thereby compromising the equilibrial basis of our resource management frameworks. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the context of conservation planning for British Columbia's Central Interior. I used bioclimatic envelope modeling and a climate interpolation and general circulation model downscaling tool to assess 73 rare plant species, 103 biogeoclimatic variants, and 30 terrestrial ecosystem units. I mapped areas projected to support climate suitable for the persistence of those conservation targets through to the 2080s. Results illustrate the potential for disruptive change only 12% (24) of the 206 targets are projected to experience persistent climate at their current locations. Although strong overlap among locations projected to persist for different targets was not found, and those areas meeting multiple objectives (including value independent of climate change) are clear priorities for protection. This methodology can function as a valuable tool for conservation planners and resource managers. --P. [i]
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".