Prospects for Individual Economies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Our estimates indicate that the US economy regained pre-crisis levels of output in the final quarter of 2010, with a full recovery in the levels of consumer spending as well as both exports and imports (see figure 2 above). Investment and inventory levels, however, remain well below pre-crisis levels, offset by higher government spending. The pace of recovery moderated in the second and third quarters of 2010, when annualised growth averaged 2.1 per cent per quarter, somewhat below potential. However, the slowdown was more a reflection of a recovery in import penetration and correction to the level of world trade than a sign of global slump. Domestic demand expanded at an average annualised rate of 4.7 per cent per quarter, pulling in imports and allowing the net trade position to worsen. In the final quarter of the year import growth appears to have moderated, and we expect the current account balance to have stabilised at 3½ per cent of GDP. We estimate that GDP expanded by 2.9 per cent in 2010 as a whole.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.081 | 0.021 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".