Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper extends the model of Ireland (1994) by incorporating population growth in examining the dynamic effects of a tax cut on the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. A tax cut has two opposing effects. First, it increases the growth rate of the economy and, thus, increases the size of the tax base and tax revenues in the future. On the other hand, a reduction in the tax rate leads to a decrease in revenues in the short run. A dynamic Laffer curve effect arises if a decrease in tax revenue can be counter-balanced by a future increase in tax revenue to ensure that the government’s intertemporal budget constraint is not violated. Similarly, population growth has two opposing effects. A high population growth decreases the per capita growth rate of the economy. On the other hand, a larger population represents a larger tax base and, therefore, makes it easier for a government to finance a budget deficit. Relative to the simulation results in Ireland (1994), our simulations indicate that incorporating population growth into his model implies that the dynamic effect of a given tax cut worsens the government’s long-run fiscal outlook.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".