Quebec weakness will hinder revival of Canada’s NDP
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance Voting in the race to replace Tom Mulcair as leader of Canada’s social-democratic NDP begins on September 18, with results announced by October 1. The victor of the contest will go on to contest 2019’s federal election against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. While not a contender for government, the NDP’s standing and performance at the polls will help determine whether Trudeau’s Liberals are elected to a second term or the Conservatives return to power. Impacts Oil-friendly NDP Alberta Premier Rachel Notley will probably be ousted in 2019 by a new right-wing fusion party. The NDP-Green coalition in British Columbia will pressure the new federal leader for more militant stances on climate and energy policy. Trudeau will probably increase his majority in 2019 should NDP support remain tepid despite a new leader.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.021 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.092 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".