Do the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Value Framework and the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale measure the same construct of clinical benefit?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
6509 Background: Whether the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Value Framework and the European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) measure similar constructs of clinical benefit is unclear. It is also unclear how they relate to quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and funding recommendations in the UK and Canada. Methods: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of oncology drug approvals by the Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency and Health Canada between January 2006 and August 2015 were identified and scored using the ASCO version 1 (v1) framework (August 10, 2015), ASCO version 2 (v2) framework (May 31, 2016) and ESMO-MCBS (May 30, 2015) by at least two independent reviewers. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated to assess construct (between frameworks) and criterion validity (against incremental QALYs from the National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) and the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR)). Associations between scores and NICE/pCODR recommendations were examined by logistic regression models. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients. Results: From 109 included RCTs, 108 ASCOv1, 111 ASCOv2 and 83 ESMO scores were determined. Correlation coefficients for ASCOv1 vs. ESMO, ASCOv2 vs. ESMO, and ASCOv1 vs. ASCOv2 were 0.36 (95% CI 0.15-0.54), 0.17 (95% CI -0.06-0.37) and 0.50 (95% CI 0.35-0.63), respectively. Compared with NICE QALYs, correlation coefficients were 0.45 (ASCOv1), 0.53 (ASCOv2) and 0.46 (ESMO); with pCODR QALYs, coefficients were 0.19 (ASCOv1), 0.20 (ASCOv2) and 0.36 (ESMO). None of the frameworks were significantly associated with NICE/pCODR recommendations. Inter-rater reliability was good for all frameworks. Conclusions: The weak-to-moderate correlations between the ASCO frameworks and ESMO-MCBS, with QALYs, and with NICE/pCODR funding recommendations suggest different constructs of clinical benefit measured. Construct convergent validity with the ESMO-MCBS in fact did not increase with the updated ASCO framework.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.167 | 0.446 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.010 | 0.012 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".