Using multiple linear regression to disaggregate electricity consumption for cluster-metered academic buildings
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ryerson University does not have a means to gauge electricity consumption for half of their campus buildings. The installation of utility meters is outside of the University’s budget, a situation that may be similar across other academic institutions. A multiple linear regression approach to estimating consumption for academic buildings is an ideal tool that balances performance and utility. Using 80 buildings from Ryerson University and the University of Toronto, significant building characteristics were identified (from a selection of 18 variables) that show a strong linear relationship with electricity consumption. Four equations were created to represent the diversity in size of academic buildings. Tested using cross-validation, the coefficient of variation of the RMSE for all models was 33%, with a range of error between 20% and 43%. The models were highly successful at modeling electricity consumption at Ryerson University with an average error of 14.8% for five building clusters. Using metered data from each cluster, raw estimates for individual buildings were adjusted to improve accuracy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".