NAFTA withdrawal would have extensive economic effects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Subject Outlook for NAFTA. Significance Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the United States completed the fifth round of negotiations on modernising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last month. Most US opinion sees NAFTA as beneficial for the economy, but the administration of President Donald Trump is proposing increasingly unpalatable changes from Mexican and Canadian perspectives. Impacts Political developments in Mexico suggest that it will not cave in to US demands that it considers to be unreasonable. The indirect impacts of NAFTA collapse could be large; supply chain dislocation might raise prices and interest rates, dampening activity. US NAFTA withdrawal could give impetus to other countries' cooperation; Canada and Mexico are part of the ex-US Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump could lose much public support if he withdraws from the deal, making it much more difficult to pass other legislation. Approaching elections in all three countries in 2018 will add a sense of urgency to the renegotiation process.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.120 | 0.043 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".