Superposed Epoch Analysis of Nighttime Magnetic Perturbation Events Observed in Arctic Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5-10 min duration can induce geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) that can harm technological systems. Here we present superposed epoch analyses of large nighttime MPEs (|dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s) observed during 2015 and 2017 at five stations in Arctic Canada ranging from 64.7° to 75.2° in corrected geomagnetic latitude (MLAT) as functions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind dynamic pressure, density, and velocity, and the SML, SMU, and SYM/H geomagnetic activity indices. Analyses were produced for premidnight and postmidnight events and for three ranges of time after the most recent substorm onset: A) 0-30 min, B) 30-60 min, and C) >60 min. Of the solar wind and IMF parameters studied, only the IMF Bz component showed any consistent temporal variations prior to MPEs: a 1-2 hour wide 1-3 nT negative minimum at all stations beginning ~30 to 80 min before premidnight MPEs, and minima that were less consistent but often deeper before postmidnight MPEs. Median, 25 th , and 75 th percentile SuperMAG auroral indices SML (SMU) showed drops (rises) before pre- and post-midnight type A MPEs, but most of the MPEs in categories B and C did not coincide with large-scale peaks in ionospheric electrojets. Median SYM/H indices were flat near -30 nT for premidnight events and showed no consistent temporal association with any MPE events. More disturbed values of IMF Bz, Psw, Nsw, SML, SMU, and SYM/H appeared postmidnight than premidnight.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".