Short‐Term Load Forecasting and Post‐Strategy Design for <scp>CCHP</scp> Systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter discusses the autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) model which is selected as the forecasting model and the parameter identification algorithm for combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) Systems, including instrument variable (IV), two-stage recursive least squares (TSRLS), and ordinary least squares (OLS)-TSRLS. It briefly introduces load forecasting. The chapter explains two steps of the operation strategy design, including the optimal operation strategy for forecasted loads and the post-strategy. It presents a case study to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method and post-strategy. IV is introduced into the identification procedure to solve the problem of inconsistent OLS identification results caused by omitted variables or the correlation between explanatory variables and error terms. The chapter provides derivations of the closed-form solutions of quadratic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and ARMAX model identifications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".