Mexico’s domestic policies jeopardise economic growth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Subject Slow growth. Significance Mexico’s economy took an unexpected plunge during the first quarter of 2019, contracting by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. The slowdown is becoming more widespread amid declines in industrial production and services. All major international financial institutions, the Bank of Mexico and even the Ministry of Finance have slashed their growth forecasts for this year to around 1.6%. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s promise to achieve an average annual growth rate of 4% over his six-year mandate -- more than double Mexico’s sluggish average rate for the last decade -- is looking increasingly unobtainable. Impacts Risk of a US-Mexico trade war has seen peso depreciation and, if sustained, will hit investment and inflation, ultimately harming growth. Public spending cuts will hit investment projects, with private investment, hampered by falling confidence, unlikely to fill the gap. AMLO’s energy policy may weaken the finances of Pemex; downgrades for both Pemex and the sovereign cannot be ruled out. Inflation risks remain to the upside, mainly due to peso weakness and wage pressures, reducing the chances of an early rate cut.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.036 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".