Modelling long-term impacts of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on merchantable biomass, ecosystem carbon, albedo, and radiative forcing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The ongoing major outbreak of mountain pine beetle (MPB) in forests of western North America has led to considerable research efforts. Yet many questions remain unaddressed regarding its long-term impacts, especially when accounting for the range of possible responses from the non-target vegetation (i.e., deciduous trees and lower-canopy shrubs and grasses). We used the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) process-based ecosystem model along with the recently incorporated Marauding Insect Module (MIM) to quantify, over 240 years, the impacts of various MPB outbreak regimes on lodgepole pine merchantable biomass, ecosystem carbon, surface albedo, and the net radiative forcing on global climate caused by the changes in ecosystem carbon and albedo. We performed simulations for three locations in British Columbia, Canada, having different climatic conditions, and four scenarios of various coexisting vegetation types with variable growth release responses. The impacts of MPB outbreaks on merchantable biomass (decrease) and surface albedo (increase) were similar across the 12 combinations of locations and vegetation coexistence scenarios. The main finding from our study was that the impacts on ecosystem carbon and radiative forcing, on the contrary, varied substantially in magnitude and sign depending upon the presence and response of the non-target vegetation, particularly for the two locations not subjected to growing-season soil moisture stress. Despite major uncertainty in the value of the resulting radiative forcing, a simple analysis also suggested a smaller impact on global temperature from the MPB outbreak in British Columbia compared to one month of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production. Moreover, we found that: (1) outbreak severity (i.e., per-event mortality) had a stronger effect than outbreak return interval on the variables studied, (2) MPB-induced changes in carbon dynamics had a stronger effect than concurrent changes in albedo on net radiative forcing, and (3) the physical presence of MPB-killed dead standing trees was potentially beneficial to tree regrowth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".