Czech monetary policy will shift in 2017
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Subject The outlook for Czech monetary policy. Significance With second-quarter GDP growth slowing to 2.5% year-on-year, the Czech Republic is no longer the fastest-growing Central-East European (CEE) economy. The cyclical upswing that characterised the Czech economy from early 2014 has come to an end. Growth is foreseen to decelerate further in the quarters ahead, owing to unfavourable base effects and a larger-than-expected drop in EU-funded investment and manufacturing inventories. The government is thus expected to introduce short-term fiscal stimulus measures to support consumption. Impacts CEE central banks are expected to hold their rates at current historically low levels for the next quarter at least. Without room for further cuts, few will consider rate tightening before Q1 2017, when the ECB will start winding down quantitative easing. Growth deceleration in the second half of 2016 will necessitate fiscal stimulus by the government ahead of the 2017 general election. Further rises in nominal wages and a firmer labour market will bolster purchasing power, with private consumption the main driver of growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.094 | 0.103 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".