OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 (Summary in Italian)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.The special feature on Brazil has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA) and Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa).However, OECD and FAO are responsible for the information and projections contained in this document, and the views expressed in the special feature do not necessarily reflect those of Brazilian institutions.The baseline projection is not a forecast about the future, but rather a plausible scenario based on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends, and international market developments.The projections of production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for the different agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2015 to 2024.The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using annual growth rates or percentage changes for the final year 2024 relative to a three-year base period of 2012-14.The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by experts from national institutions in collaborating countries and international commodity organisations prior to their finalisation and publication in this report.The risks and uncertainties around the baseline projections are examined through a number of possible alternative scenarios and stochastic analysis, which illustrate how market outcomes may differ from the deterministic baseline projections.The complete Agricultural Outlook, including more detailed commodity chapters, the full statistical annex and fully documented Outlook database, including historical data and projections, can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint Internet site: www.agri-outlook.org.The
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.017 | 0.033 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".