Investigation and amelioration of long-term instrumental drifts in water vapor and nitrous oxide measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and their implications for studies of variability and trends
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched on NASA's Aura spacecraft in 2004, measures vertical profiles of the abundances of key atmospheric species from the upper troposphere to the mesosphere with daily near-global coverage. We review the first 15 years of the record of H2O and N2O measurements from the MLS 190-GHz subsystem (along with other 190-GHz information), with a focus on their long-term stability, largely based on comparisons with measurements from other sensors. These comparisons generally show signs of an increasing drift in the MLS version 4 (v4) H2O record starting around 2010. Specifically, comparisons with v4.1 measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) indicate a ~2–3 %/decade drift over much of the stratosphere, increasing to as much as ~7 %/decade around 46 hPa. Larger drifts, of around 7–11 %/decade, are seen in comparisons to balloon-borne frost point hygrometer measurements in the lower stratosphere. In contrast, the MLS v4 N2O product is shown to be generally decreasing over the same period (when an increase in stratospheric N2O is expected, reflecting a secular growth in emissions), with a more pronounced drift in the lower stratosphere than that found for H2O. Detailed investigations of the behavior of the MLS 190-GHz subsystem reveal a drift in its sideband fraction (the relative sensitivity of the 190-GHz receiver to the two different parts of the microwave spectrum it observes). Our studies indicate that sideband fraction drift accounts for much of the observed changes in the MLS H2O product and some portion of the changes seen in N2O. The 190-GHz sideband fraction drift has been corrected in the new version 5 MLS algorithms, which have now been used to reprocess the entire MLS record. As a result of this correction, the MLS v5 H2O record shows no statistically significant drifts compared to ACE-FTS. However, statistically significant drifts remain between MLS v5 and frost point measurements, though they are reduced. Drifts in v5 N2O are about half the size of those in v4 but remain statistically significant. Scientists are advised to use MLS v5 data in all future studies. Quantification of inter-regional and seasonal-to-annual changes in MLS H2O and N2O will not be affected by the drift. However, caution is advised in studies using the MLS record to examine long-term (multi-year) variability and trends in either of these species, especially N2O; such studies should only be undertaken in consultation with the MLS team. Importantly, this drift does not affect any of the MLS observations made in other spectral regions such as O3, HCl, CO, ClO, or temperature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".