US mushroom import demand estimation with the source-differentiated AIDS model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recognising that the share of imports in total consumption has been increasing, and will likely continue to do so as US consumers adopt healthier diets, the goal of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of US mushroom demand by estimating the first-ever import demand elasticities for canned and fresh mushrooms by source. Price elasticities from a source-differentiated almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model suggest that while Canada, the leading exporter of fresh mushrooms to the US, may gain more revenue from rising mushroom prices; China, the leading exporter of canned mushrooms to the US may lose. The expenditure elasticities suggest that Chinese exporters of canned mushrooms stand to gain more from rising US spending on imported mushrooms than Canadian exporters of fresh mushrooms. Should NAFTA be scrapped and tariffs imposed, Mexico will lose more market share in the US fresh mushroom market than Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".