Government policies may further slow Polish growth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance Poland has been locked in political turmoil since December 16, when opposition deputies occupied the Sejm against government proposals to curb journalists’ access to live debates. This crisis has coincided with a noticeable investment-led slowdown in the third quarter of 2016, when GDP growth slowed to 2.2%; unfavourable base effects are likely to have slowed growth further in the final quarter. The government’s expectations of a spurt in the first half of 2017 -- Law and Justice (PiS) leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has called for 4% annual growth -- are optimistic. Impacts Fiscal stimulus measures are likely to push the deficit towards the EU-mandated 3% of GDP threshold by end-2017, and breach it thereafter. A sovereign credit rating downgrade appears more likely as Poland’s fiscal profile deteriorates. Growth will remain modest this year, supported largely by domestic demand; without other GDP drivers, government targets will be missed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.033 | 0.009 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".