Recession increases risks to Russian leadership
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance Recovery will be slower in 2017 than previously estimated, at 0.9% instead of 1.7%, the bank said. The low price of oil is the main burden on the flagging Russian economy. Moreover, high inflation due to the weak ruble will prevent the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) from lowering its benchmark rate from the current 11% before the fourth quarter of 2016. Impacts Protracted economic turmoil could translate into street protests, the first challenge Putin has faced since the 2011 election. State intervention in the economy will increase given the weakness of investor funding and domestic capital markets. Unless Western sanctions are lifted in 2016, a return to a growth trajectory is unlikely. Foreign currency reserves may run low by mid-2017 unless the economy recovers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.035 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".