The case for including additional long‐term oriented environmental data in coffee and cocoa futures forecasting models: an exploration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Price discovery is a key function of the futures markets yet limited public information exists about the price‐building models used by market participants. To fill a gap in the literature, interviews were conducted with the largest coffee and cocoa traders, investors, and organizations to provide insight into the models they use to forecast supply and futures prices, with an emphasis on the environmental factors considered to have a significant impact on yield. Despite concerns in the academic literature about soil degradation and climate change affecting the future viability of these crops, market participants primarily based their forecasts on short‐term weather patterns that deviated from the norm, as per historical data. Participants’ near‐unanimous acknowledgement that low coffee and cocoa prices pose a threat to the sustainability of the industry suggests that there is room to price in long‐term factors into short‐term futures models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.041 | 0.129 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.022 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".