A Comparison of Plume Rise Algorithms to Stack Plume Measurements in the Athabasca Oil Sands
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Plume rise parameterizations calculate the rise of pollutant plumes due to effluent buoyancy and exit momentum. Some form of these parameterizations are used by most air quality models. In this paper, the performance of the commonly used Briggs plume rise algorithm was extensively evaluated through a comparison of the algorithm's results when driven by meteorological observations with direct observations of plume heights in the Athabasca oil sands region. The observations were carried out as part of the Canada–Alberta Joint Oil Sands Monitoring Plan in August and September of 2013. Wind and temperature data used to drive the algorithm were measured in the region of emissions from various platforms, including two meteorological towers, a radio-acoustic profiler, and a research aircraft. Other meteorological variables used to drive the algorithm include friction velocity, boundary-layer height, and the Obukhov length. Stack emissions and flow parameter information reported by Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) were used to drive the plume rise algorithm. The calculated plume heights were then compared to interpolated aircraft SO2 measurements, in order to evaluate the algorithm's prediction for plume rise. We demonstrate that the Briggs algorithm, when driven by ambient observations, significantly underestimated plume rise for these sources, with more than a third of the predicted plume heights falling below half the observed values from this analysis. Including the effects of effluent momentum and choosing between different forms of the parameterizations improve results slightly, but there remains an average underestimation between 4 and 21 %, depending on the measurement platform used to drive the algorithm. These results are in contrast to numerous plume rise measurement studies published between 1968 and 1993. It is suggested that further investigation using long-term in-situ measurements with currently available technologies is warranted to investigate this discrepancy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".