The Australian bush fires of February 2009: MIPAS observations and GEM-AQ model results
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. On 7 February 2009, and the following days Southeast Australia was devastated by large bush fires, which burned an area of about 3000 km2. This event was extraordinary, because a large number of combustion products was transported into the uppermost troposphere and lower stratosphere within a few days. Various biomass burning products released by the fire were observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite. We track the plume using MIPAS C2H2, HCN and HCOOH single-scan measurements on a day-to-day basis. The measurements are compared with a high-resolution model run of the Global Environmental Multiscale-Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model. Generally there is very good agreement between the spatial distribution of measured and modelled pollutants during the first two weeks after the outbreak of the fire even over intercontinental distances. Both MIPAS and GEM-AQ show a fast south-eastward transport of the pollutants to New Zealand within one day. During the following 3–4 days the plume was located north and eastward of New Zealand and centered at altitudes of 15 to 18 km. Thereafter its eastern part was transported eastward at altitudes of 15–16 km, followed by westward transport of its western part at somewhat higher altitudes. On 17 February the eastern part had reached Southern South America and on 20 February the South African west coast. On the latter day a second relic of the plume was observed moving eastward above the Southern Pacific, whereas the westward transported pollutants were located above Australia at altitudes of 18–20 km. First evidence for entry of the pollutants into the stratosphere was found in MIPAS data of 11 February, followed by larger amounts on 17 February and the days thereafter. Between 20 February and the first week of March the stratospheric pollutants above Australia were transported further westward over the Indian Ocean towards Southern Africa.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".