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Record W4248393361 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13487

Evaluating RCM Added Value in Climate Change Projections

2021· preprint· en· W4248393361 on OpenAlexaffabout
John Scinocca

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicEnvironmental Impact and Sustainability
Canadian institutionsEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDownscalingClimate changeContext (archaeology)GCM transcription factorsValue (mathematics)Climate modelClimatologyGeneral Circulation ModelEnvironmental scienceAdded valueRepresentative Concentration PathwaysPerspective (graphical)Variety (cybernetics)Computer scienceEconomicsGeographyEcologyGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

When a regional climate model is used to investigate and understand an issue related to climate change, in principle, an understanding of that issue will already be available from the global GCM simulations that provided the RCM driving data. From this perspective, the downscaling exercise is essentially one of adding understanding, or value, to an existing GCM result and so, it would seem sensible that statements regarding the value added by RCM downscaling be put into the context of the driving GCM's results. While such added value is central to the downscaling exercise, its evaluation is an intrinsically difficult undertaking for a variety of reasons - not least of which is the lack of a consensus on how added value should be defined. Irrespective of the definition of added value, however, progress can still be made on this issue. In the present study, we develop a methodology for an appreciable difference analysis of the climate change results in RCMs relative to their driving GCMs. Since added value can only exist where appreciable differences occur in the climate change results of the global and regional models, the present approach provides a useful tool to direct attention to areas where added value potentially exist and conversely rule out areas where it does not. The approach is illustrated on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate change experiments using the Canadian Earth-system model CanESM2 and its downscaled counterpart CanRCM4.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.018
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.059
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.030
Threshold uncertainty score0.094

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0180.059
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0030.004
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.095
GPT teacher head0.369
Teacher spread0.274 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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