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Record W4248785488 · doi:10.31235/osf.io/rzywc

Structure is Management of Uncertainty in Groups

2020· preprint· en· W4248785488 on OpenAlex
Jesse Hoey

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicLanguage and cultural evolution
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAmbiguitySalientBayesian inferenceArtificial intelligenceBayesian networkComputer scienceBayesian probabilityInferenceSociologyContrast (vision)EpistemologySocial psychologyPsychology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

I argue that the management of uncertainty by agents in a social world is foundational to the formation of social structures and to the definition of culture. I present a deep Bayesian model for this management of uncertainty in intelligent systems, and I argue for its applicability to cultural sociology. As social systems grow more heterogeneous, management of uncertainty in any participating agent becomes computationally difficult, and I propose that combinations of a small number of layers of reasoning in a deep Bayesian model are sufficient to account for some of the salient ways by which humans manage this uncertainty. Three forces come into play when considering such a model, and each is connected to a particular form of uncertainty. A denotative layer in the model represents uncertainty in the world or environment (ambiguity and risk about outcomes), a connotative layer manages the uncertainty about relationships with other social agents, and the connection between denotative and connotative handles uncertainty about identities of the self and others. Behaviours taken by agent and by others are handled in both layers simultaneously. I show how the tradeoff between these three factors maps to different social structures, and I use use the model to make predictions across a range of domains, and show its relationship to cultural sociological, social psychological, economic and sociological theorizing. I further link this model to Bayesian views of the mind, primarily the active inference model of human intelligence, and compare and contrast to more traditional artificial intelligence.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.286
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.308
Teacher spread0.284 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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