Exchange rate adjustment and growth in East Asia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The economies of East Asia, including Japan, ended last year strongly, despite the noticeable slowdown in the US and in Europe. Buoyed by a fiscal stimulus package, private consumption in Hong Kong is booming; domestic demand expanded at double digit rates on an annual basis in the final quarter of last year and the preliminary data for the first several months of this year show no abatement. Elsewhere, strong credit growth and healthy labour markets underpin investment and private consumption growth in South Korea and across the region in general. We expect output growth to moderate somewhat but to remain healthy this year in much of East Asia and Australia. GDP is forecast to expand by nearly 3 per cent per annum in Australia, down from a 3.9 per cent pace recorded last year. China is forecast to grow by over 10 per cent this year, down from an 11.3 per cent pace in 2007. Output growth in Taiwan is likewise expected to moderate to about 5¼ per cent on an annual basis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".