Top–down estimates of black carbon emissions at high latitudes using an atmospheric transport model and a Bayesian inversion framework
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. This paper presents the results of BC inversions at high northern latitudes (> 50° N) for the 2013–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was performed to select the best representative species for BC and the best prior emission dataset. The same model ensemble was used to assess the uncertainty of the posterior emissions of BC due to scavenging and removal and due to the use of different prior emission inventory. The optimised emissions of BC were high close to the gas flaring regions in Russia and in Western Canada (Alberta), where numerous power and oil/gas production industries operate. The annual posterior emissions of BC at latitudes above 50° N were estimated as 560 ± 171 kt yr−1, significantly smaller than in ECLIPSEv5 (745 kt yr−1), which was used and the prior information in the inversions of BC. The average relative uncertainty of the inversions was estimated to be 30 %. Posterior concentrations of BC simulated over Arctic regions were compared with independent observations from flight and ship campaigns showing, in all cases, smaller bias, which in turn witnesses the success of the inversion. Posterior emissions of BC in North America are driven by anthropogenic sources, while biomass burning appeared to be less significant as it is also confirmed by satellite products. In North Europe, posterior emissions were estimated to be half compared to the prior ones, with the highest releases to be in megacities and due to biomass burning in Eastern Europe. The largest emissions of BC in Siberia were calculated along the transect between Yekaterinsburg and Chelyabinsk. Flaring emissions in Nenets-Komi oblast (Russia) were estimated to be much lower than in the prior emissions, while in Khanty-Mansiysk (Russia) they remained the same after the inversions of BC. Increased emissions in the borders between Russia and Mongolia are probably due to biomass burning in villages along the Trans-Siberian Railway.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".