Facts and figures: Primary energy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This quarter’s edition of UNCTAD’s Commodities at a Glance describes world energy trade, price, production and consumption trends, with a particular focus on Africa. Over the last three decades, world consumption of primary energy nearly doubled from 280 quadrillion British thermal unit (BTU) in 1980 to 490 quadrillion Btu in 2008 (see Figure 4). A number of factors have been attributed to this dramatic increase in consumption including global economic growth, rapidly industrializing developing countries, increasing world population and urbanization. Over the next two decades, the world population is forecast to grow from approximately 7 billion to 8.32 billion, with the likelihood of rising demand for primary energy resources. International Energy Agency (IEA) projections suggest that between 2008 and 2035 global demand for such resources will increase by 36 per cent or 1.2 per cent per year on average. Most of this projected increase is expected to come from non-OECD countries, particularly India and China, accounting for 18 per cent and 36 per cent respectively of this increase. The Middle East is expected to experience the most rapid demand growth at 2 per cent per year largely due to fast growing energy demand sectors, such as petrochemical industries and power generation. Demand in Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, is also expected to grow as electricity supply needs to increase in response to population growth. However, a lack of infrastructure in the region is expected to limit access to primary energies, and demand growth is projected to match the world average at 1.2 per cent per year. Together, non-OECD countries will account for about 93 per cent of global primary energy demand growth by 2035.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.154 | 0.139 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".