New Canada-US NAFTA deal is likely despite risks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance By the end of this month, Washington wants Ottawa to sign on to the new NAFTA deal that Mexico City and Washington agreed last month. If Ottawa refuses, US and Canadian economic dislocation will follow (particularly in the auto sector), which would be made worse if a replacement Canada-US free trade agreement (FTA) is not agreed quickly or at all. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said yesterday he would not bow to US pressure and would negotiate in Canada’s interests. Impacts Canadian pharma firms would decline but survive if a deal safeguarding US patents from generic drugs competition were agreed. Canada may modify, but not totally dismantle, its agricultural supply management system to allow more US competition. Canadian cultural industries (film, arts, television) will likely lose their protection from US competition. A no-deal would likely see Canadian firms seek new non-US markets, but new FTAs are not guaranteed. No deal would increase Canadian joblessness and lose the governing Liberals votes, but they would likely still win in 2019.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.028 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".