The 2020 Mw 6.8 Elaziğ (Turkey) earthquake reveals rupture behavior of the East Anatolian Fault
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The 2020 Mw 6.8 Elaziğ earthquake was the largest along the Eastern Anatolian Fault (EAF) in over a century and so provides valuable insights into its rupture behavior. Because the EAF is of low-to-intermediate structural maturity, this earthquake could also help refine the controls of cumulative fault offset on characteristics such as rupture velocity, shallow slip deficits, and afterslip. We use satellite geodesy and seismology to detail the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation and aftershocks, and relations to previous earthquakes. The mainshock propagated bilaterally at ~2km/s from a nucleation point on an abrupt ~10° fault bend. Only one end of the rupture corresponds to an established EAF segment boundary, and the earthquake may have propagated into the slip zone of the 1874 M ~7.1 Gölcuk Gölu earthquake. It exhibits a pronounced (~80%) shallow slip deficit, only a small proportion of which is recovered by early aseismic afterslip.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it