MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4252068164 · doi:10.1177/0027950110364094

Prospects for the UK Economy

2010· article· en· W4252068164 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Simon Kirby, Ray Barrell, Nathan Foley-Fisher

Bibliographic record

VenueNational Institute Economic Review · 2010
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGerman Economic Analysis & Policies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconomicsQuarter (Canadian coin)RetrenchmentStimulus (psychology)EconomyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The preliminary estimate of GDP confirms that the UK economy finally stopped contracting in the fourth quarter of 2009, bringing to an end six quarters of continuous contraction (figure 1) but 0.1 per cent growth is disappointing. The estimate suggested that the economy contracted by 4.8 per cent in 2009. Growth was driven by the distribution and government sectors. The main contributors from the distribution sector were the retail and motor trades. This is consistent with the impact of the cut in the standard rate of VAT and the car scrappage scheme, both of which should have brought durables purchases forward into the last quarter of 2009. It also highlights the risk that, as the fiscal stimulus ends, the UK economy could stall and possibly even contract for a quarter or two. As figure 1 shows, we do not expect this to happen. We expect growth of 1.1 per cent per annum this year; stronger growth is inconsistent with a household sector undergoing a period of retrenchment and increased savings. Contributions to economic growth are expected to be the result of the inventory cycle and the influence of net trade.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.916
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.005

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.053
GPT teacher head0.287
Teacher spread0.235 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2010
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueNational Institute Economic ReviewSame topicGerman Economic Analysis & PoliciesFrench-language works237,207